With the 2019 NHL Draft Combine wrapping up this weekend, young NHL hopefuls were put through a battery of rigorous testing including fitness testing, team interviews and media interviews. This is a great opportunity for the players to show scouts, coaches and GMs how they match up against their counterparts off the ice. For GMs and coaches, this can help them make decisions between two similar players or whether the guy they planned on picking is a good fit. But we all remember Sam Bennett’s famous performance at the 2014 NHL Combine where he failed to do 1 chin up. We have also recently witness potential 1stoverall pick Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko decide not to participate in the combine. So how does the NHL Combine influence draft order and on-ice performance?
In a 2006 study by Vescovi et al., they compared off-ice performance in NHL Combine participants with the draft order. They found that none of the 12 tests used from 2001-2003 could accurately predict draft order in those 3 years. Interestingly, another study by Burr et al (2007) specifically looked at leg power tests and NHL Draft order. They found that standing vertical jump could predict a small percentage of the draft order. They bring up the fact that there are many other factors influencing draft selection other than leg power such as agility, spatial awareness and game sense. Based on these two studies, it’s difficult to confer that we can identify the higher-level players based on the combine results. However, with leg power being a small part of the complete hockey player equation, those with greater leg power would be able to produce greater skating velocity on the ice, making them more attractive to NHL teams.
One of the more popular fitness tests at the draft combine is the Wingate test. It’s even popular among teams as around 79% of NHL teams have reported using some variation of the Wingate protocol (Ebben et al, 2004). But how do the results of the Wingate test transfer over to the ice? A 2016 study by Peterson et al. compared off-ice anaerobic power tests (vertical jump and 30sec Wingate) to on-ice acceleration, velocity, and repeated shift test. They found that the off-ice tests were valid measures of single bouts of acceleration and velocity on the ice but not repeated shift test. This study showed that the anaerobic off-ice tests can determine which players will have an advantage during a single bout acceleration and will be able to reach top end speeds, but does not determine if they will be able remain at top end speed and accelerations after multiple shifts. In another study, Peterson et al. (2015) looked at aerobic capacity and repeated shift performance in hockey by comparing players maximal oxygen consumption on a skating treadmill with a repeated shift test. They found that those with greater oxygen consumption performed better and were less fatigued at the end of a mock shift in the repeated shift test. This study suggests that end stage reached in the graded exercise test mitigated fatigue better and performed better in the repeated shift test. These two studies demonstrate the importance and transference of off-ice aerobic tests as well as anaerobic tests for hockey players, both of which are tested at the combine, although not on a skating treadmill which could give different results for aerobic testing. These tests might be an indication to a GM how well player may be able to maintain his performance throughout a game if he performs well in both anaerobic and aerobic tests.
At the end of the day, what the players do during the combine will not likely change someone’s career. If the goal of the NHL Combine is to be able to identify which players are going to be successful or will be able to produce at the top level, the NHL and GM’s might not be doing it right. But in my opinion, I think it’s a great opportunity for GMs to see what guys physically mature and ready to step into the NHL, which guys are willing to compete off the ice, and how much these guys want to take that next step. I also think it’s a great opportunity for the players to separate themselves from others who may play a similar style and have a similar skill set, especially in the early rounds of the draft.
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